We've updated the macro situation: https://www.cryptosazz.com/regime/

🌐 Macro Pulse: Mixed but Turning Defensive

• 🧠 Fractal Risk Divergence (FRD) signals a bearish skew, with increasing fragility across asset classes. This divergence historically precedes topping behavior or deeper pullbacks.
• 🧩 3D Macro Cube (Liquidity, Volatility, Energy) is clustering in Regime 2: Moderate. While not outright bearish, this regime reflects a pause in risk-on momentum and tends to precede transitions — not expansions.
• 📉 Macro Regime Map (FFR-DXY, VIX, Oil factors) is tilting into Regime 1: Stress, where BTC historically underperforms. Red clusters have reappeared, warning of tighter conditions despite recent strength.

📈 Key Market Observations

• 🟠 BTC-USD: Has met its 100% swing target, pausing just under $120K. RSI cooling and macro stress readings suggest reduced asymmetry for new longs. FRD confirms the caution.

• 📘 Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Also achieved its 100% extension, with minor exhaustion showing in momentum. FRD and macro signals imply a potential retest or consolidation ahead.

• 🇰🇷 KOSPI Index: Hesitating at major resistance, but no clean breakdown yet. Our model still forecasts further corrective behavior, though timing remains uncertain. Watch for volatility spikes or macro catalysts.

🔻 CryptoSAZZ Outlook

With BTC and NDX both completing swing objectives, and macro signals leaning defensive:

• Trim long exposure or tighten stops
• Avoid breakout trades — momentum is vulnerable to fade
• Watch KOSPI and VIX for early stress triggers
• A "liquidity hiccup" may emerge if challenges in interest rates, particularly Japan

We are approaching an inflection zone, not a trend continuation. Macro-regime overlays are your edge — remain adaptive.

✍️ By The CryptoSazz Markets Desk

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